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Thursday, 19 January 2012

Year 2012: Forecasts of the world's largest banks

                           Goldman Sachs

1. "In our scenario, the global economy in 2012 and 2013 will grow at a slower pace than in the past two years. The outlook for global GDP growth in 2012 - only about 3%. In the next two years, the global financial system will be under the influence of various negative factors, but particularly strong volatility in financial markets is associated with the debt problems of the eurozone. " 2. "We expect a slowdown in economic growth in the U.S. in early 2012. On the one hand, the reason for this lies in the financial ties of the U.S. economy with Europe, which is currently undergoing a sovereign debt crisis. How do we think the U.S. will not be able to show the dynamics of GDP growth of 2 5% on an annualized basis. " 3. "In our view, the growth of Chinese economy in the coming year will be considerably weaker than those rapid growth rates, which showed a Celestial in the last couple of years. This is partly due to the tightening of economic policy pursued by the PRC leadership program to fight inflation. Nevertheless, it is China that will remain the fastest growing economies in the world with an index of growth in 2012 at 8.5%.

                          Deutsche Bank

1. Greece - Get lost! We do not believe that Greece can actually leave the area of treatment of the single currency, but nothing is impossible not to be regarded as unthinkable. Return to the drachma would lead to a sharp redenomination of all assets of the private sector, restructuring of public debt in a huge amount, but also possibly to the collapse of the banking system in Greece. It is likely that catastrophic spill, and for banking organizations other peripheral countries of Europe. 2. Italy and Spain - "Too big to fail, too large to bail". In total, Italy and Spain are too big to fall, as well as to their rescue. The two countries are the third and fourth largest economies in the euro area, whose total public debt amounts to 2.7 trillion euros, or 30% of the total debt burden of the currency bloc. If these two countries will begin full-blown recession with the loss of investor confidence and the lack of any clear way of saving, European Central Bank with the support of others will have to start aggressive actions. 3. The beginning of a new global recession (and / or downgrade the U.S.) I quarter of 2011 was a clear demonstration of how fast, strong and unexpected shocks (shocks elements, military operations, fluctuations in the market) may spill over into the real economy, causing it to slow down. Thus, if in 2012 there will be new shocks, there is a real threat to the beginning of a full-scale recession.

                           Saxo Bank

1. The world's largest IT-company Apple Inc. in 2012, could face a significant increase in competition from its main competitors - Google, Amazon, Samsung, and the alliance of Microsoft and the Finnish Nokia. All of them are expected to intend to bring to market a series of innovative products. In this regard, the apple of the company have to give their share in most segments of the market where there is Apple - in smartphones, tablets and operating systems. 2. In Europe, there will be additional bank holiday. This is due to the fact that the European debt crisis adversely affects the trading sessions. In particular, fall quotes representatives of the banking sector. Traders fear that the financial corporation will not be able to increase its capital and protect against the threat of recession. The result - a government can go to the introduction of additional holidays, when all the European stock exchanges and banks will be closed and will be able to "translate the spirit." This will prevent the prolonged downturn in the markets. 3. The White House lodge new prezident.Nesmotrya that in the U.S. presidential race has already begun on the eve of the presidential elections of 2012, the future winner to date was named. According to Saxo Bank, for three years of his tenure as president, Barack Obama "has not been able to make significant changes." This means that a new candidate, be it male or female, it is possible to provide a promising alternative program and to take her to the vote in 2012.

                             BNP Paribas

1. In the eurozone debt crisis a turning point. This may contribute to the ECB decision to start its own program of quantitative easing by buying from the secondary market for government debt problem in Europe. Most likely, the policy of the ECB will not be able to provide long-term positive vozdestviya. However, it may well be a turning point in combating the crisis and to give impetus to the gradual exit from the recession. 2. All hope for America. U.S. economic growth could spur activity in the markets and act as a catalyst for the return of investor confidence in the troubled region. From a technical point of view, this scenario can not be ruled out, although the more likely that the U.S. economy and will not be able to stand on the track of strong growth in 2012. The reason is that the major "brake" the growth in the coming year will involve: Corporate activity will remain weak as the same now, stock markets will be under pressure, build and fly the real estate sector will be very disoriented. But if all these sectors to give the corresponding pulses will have a real opportunity to achieve the desired synergy .. 3. Developing - not so developed. Developing economies will significantly strengthen its own resistance to external economic fluctuations. Thus, emerging markets would be able to resist the spread of the global recession on them. We can not exclude the likelihood that in 2012 it is the developing markets will assume the role of locomotive of world economy and be able to turn the key growth markets in the activity. So far, the likelihood is high that a growing countries will not escape the crisis, but the fact is that developing economies are beginning to play an increasingly important role in the global financial system.

                               UBS

1. Overestimated forecasts of corporate profits. The baseline scenario - forecasts do not materialize due to the reduction of global GDP. Surprise can only happen if suddenly starts rapidly restore the global economy. 2. The lag of the financial sector, and this is the baseline scenario. The reasons are already known: the more stringent regulations, lack of capitalization, the crisis in Europe and stagnation in the housing market in the U.S. and so on. "Shoot," banks will be able only if the market has already considered all the bad news and considered a mark reached bottom. 3. The weakening of the euro. Eurozone GDP in 2012 will go into the negative region, which clearly would not support the single currency. She was able to help only the third wave of quantitative easing from the Fed, in this case there and rally on the euro.

                             Nomura

1.  Germany and the ECB will not ket happened the collapse of the euro zone. Analysts expect that in early 2012 a serious threat to force the ECB to increase purchases of government bonds. 2. The U.S. authorities can not extend the tax cuts, expiring on December 31. This would reduce U.S. GDP for 2012 at 0.8%. Further opposition to the Republicans and Democrats face a decrease in credit rating of the United States. 3. "Arab Spring" may continue, as evidenced by the growing tensions between Iran and Israel, the withdrawal of troops from Iraq and new unrest in Egypt and Syria. It is fraught with disruptions in oil supplies.

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