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Saturday, 14 January 2012

On the path of War

This is a crude translation of an article on Russian website expert.ru. According to the article the drums of war are loud in Iran; however, some readiness to negotiate is also formally declared.

The situation around Iran is getting worse. Russia is making serious diplomatic efforts to defuse the situation, urging the West to the senselessness of war with the IRI. Tehran, meanwhile do not try too hard to prevent a disaster: he was confident that the U.S. take such a step would not go and will be limited only by pressure.

Against the backdrop of escalating conflict with the West, Iran has declared its readiness to resume talks on nuclear program
Against the backdrop of escalating conflict with the West, Iran has declared its readiness to resume talks on nuclear program
Illustration: Expert Online

Enrichment

Unpleasant news received from the IAEA with respect to the Tehran to enrich uranium to 20% on the nuclear enterprise, "Fordu" in  Ostan-e Qom, serious consequences.
UN Security Council yesterday held an emergency meeting on the initiative of France. Fellow diplomats urged the IRI immediately suspend uranium enrichment and resume negotiations with the international "six" brokers.
According to Paris, Iran's actions can not justify the need for peaceful use of atom. The press French diplomat at the UN , Martin Brins. It is clear that Tehran's actions in line with the development of the atom - neither more nor less than a new violation of the resolution of the IAEA Board of 18 November 2011, as well as six UN Security Council resolutions. "Dialogue and pressure" - such a principle holds for France and the IRI's nuclear program. Paris is pushing Iran into negotiations and planning new sanctions.
U.S. condemned the move Tehran. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said: "This once again shows the blatant irresponsibility of the Iranian regime in respect of their obligations."
China opposed the aggravation all problems must be solved "through consultations and negotiations."
Russia, like the West, is also very unhappy with its strategic ally, always ignoring the requirements of UN resolutions. Russian diplomats at the UN say that Moscow "with regret and concern" took the news of the beginning of the enrichment of uranium.Anticipating a strong reaction from the West, the Russian Federation called on the parties "to refrain from hasty and drastic steps that could undermine the creation of conditions for the resumption of dialogue." However, it must be admitted that these conditions are considerably eroded.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov today tried to reduce the intensity of emotions around this theme: "Tehran is set in advance the IAEA informed of the work, and all the nuclear material there is under the control of the agency. And this can not be ignored. " Thus, IRI received in accordance with generally accepted and do not interfere.And the reason for the Security Council discussion of this topic there. At the same time, he acknowledged, the enrichment of uranium - a violation of the resolution, SatAccording Gatilova, the new sanctions and possible military strike on the IRI "will be perceived in the international community as pursuing the goal of regime change in Tehran." And it has nothing to do with running the task of strengthening the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
On the eve of another Russian senior diplomat - Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov - made ​​more explicit statement: "The military operation against Iran would have dire mistake, a very crude miscalculation. The consequences of such a hypothetical development would be the most far-reaching for the regional and global security. " This means that Russia reacted to the seriousness of the U.S. response to Iran's moves. A military solution "categorically unacceptable," so the Russian Federation calls "partners" six ", all those who in recent days once again stepped up discussion on this topic, think again and to exercise maximum restraint."
However, recent information about the nuclear program dominates. As it became known today, according to the IAEA, Iran is about a year to obtain uranium in sufficient quantities to produce a bomb. This was stated by former IAEA Deputy Director General Olli Heinonen. Now he works at Harvard, and provides comments on the status of an expert: "All that remains to be done to Iran - is to miss the 20-percent enriched uranium through existing additional centrifuge cascades to achieve weapons-grade enrichment." To make a nuclear bomb requires a 90-percent enriched uranium. Heinonen is estimated at existing facilities IRI can produce about 15 kg of a 20-percent enriched uranium per month.

Strait

Note, except at the uranium enrichment IRI has taken another step confrontational: launched a message of intent to block the Strait of Hormuz. This caused another round of conflict. The U.S. and Britain have sent their navies to the region.
Diplomat Ryabkov again calls not to aggravate the situation: "Strait of Hormuz is international, and it must ensure freedom of navigation." He noted however, that the IRI has the right to conduct military exercises in the sea in order to ensure their safety.Russia is once again trying to reduce the degree of discussion: "We believe that the Iranians, and indeed all members of the international community in the present alarming situation must necessarily avoid statements and the more action that would lead to a further spiral of confrontation."
Recall the last time on the IRI were imposed unilateral sanctions of some Western countries after the head of the IAEA issued a report on Tehran's nuclear program, which has suggested its warlike character. In November 2011, we recall, the news triggered a storm of emotions, though, on the assertions of many analysts, the report does not contain any new parts. Sanctions related to energy and financial sectors of the Iranian economy.
In late December - early January, Iran conducted maneuvers in the Strait of Hormuz.Through it runs about 40% of world exports of petroleum and petroleum products.
January 8th, 2012 Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz if the West impose an embargo on the purchase of Iranian oil. Pentagon chief Leon Panetta said: "We have already made ​​clear that the U.S. will not allow overlapping of the Strait of Hormuz. This is another boundary that can not move. We are able to respond to it. " Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff United States Martin Dempsey was more specific: "If the Iranians will go to block the Strait, the U.S. will be ready to crush them." And the destruction of all exposed Iran's nuclear program - brainchild of the Islamic Republic. According to some media reports, at the conclusion of the maneuvers Teheran disavowed the threat by announcing that he would not block the strait. Nevertheless, in the Indian Ocean became carrier battle group led by the nuclear aircraft carrier Carl Vinson. She moved into the Arabian Sea, where there is an aircraft carrier John C. Stennis and ships.January 11 in the Arabian Sea aired another carrier battle group led by the U.S. Navy with the multi-purpose nuclear aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln. And Great Britain has sent a destroyer to the Strait of Hormuz. "The deployment of U.S. military assets in the Gulf region will continue the way it happened for decades - said Defense Ministry spokesman George Little . - Deployment of carrier battle groups is aimed at ensuring security and stability in the region, as well as the continuity of the current pre-planned missions. " That is, sending fleets in the region, he said, has nothing to do with the behavior of Iran. As reported today, The New York Times, United States through secret channels warned Iran on the overlap of the Strait of Hormuz, warning Rahbar Ali Khamenei, that certainly will answer it.
Deepening of the tense situation and contributed to the attack against Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan. Senior management of the country accused of killing U.S. and Israel. A special service reported the arrest of four American spies. Note Roshan oversaw the company's uranium enrichment at Natanz. Over the past two years, this is the fourth case of nuclear attack on Iran. In 2010, had been killed Masoud Ali Mohammadi and Majid Shahriyari , and Fereydoon Abbasi was wounded.
Tehran promised today to file complaints to international bodies on the West's reaction to the killing Roshan. According to the Spokesman of IRI, "the silence of Western countries and supporters of the Israeli regime in the killing of Iranian scientists shows confidence in Tel Aviv in the fact that other countries will not take serious steps to counter the Israeli terror."

Rate pressure

Today, the U.S. State Department announced new sanctions. This time, the crack does not relate to Iranian companies and three foreign - Singapore, "Kuo Oil", which is based in the UAE, "FAL Oil" and Chinese "Zhuhai Zhenron" cooperating with Iran in the energy sector.
Imposed sanctions prohibiting specified companies to obtain export credits from Eximbank USA and limit the possibilities of obtaining loans from private banks.Washington would not give them license to export goods.
The EU, which also wanted to impose sanctions, an embargo on Iranian oil imports, now seems determined not to rush. He wants to allow the Iranian hydrocarbons to European buyers to find alternative sources of energy. The fact that Greece, Italy and Spain in 2010, bought 68.5% of Iranian oil. According to Bloomberg, the question of the embargo will be discussed on January 23 meeting of heads of EU Foreign Ministers.
Japan has also pledged to reduce purchases of oil in Iran. As the head of the Treasury of this country over the past five years, Tokyo has already significantly reduced the supply of Iranian oil.
Turkey, however, stated that he would not comply with the new sanctions against Iran.Turkey buys gas in the IRI and consumed about a third of the volume of oil.

Talks of "six"

Against the background of Open-confrontation on all fronts possible with the West, Iran is a peace-loving gesture. January 10, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast expressed the willingness to resume talks on its nuclear program. He said that he expects from the EU High Representative for foreign affairs and securitychief Catherine Ashton proposals to date, and place a new round of meetings. The Iranians would like to hold a meeting in Istanbul.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani said today that his country was "always ready" to negotiate. The meeting can be successful, "if the world powers will approach it seriously," he said. This means that the mediators should acknowledge and endorse the peaceful nature of its nuclear program.
Note IRI in recent months has repeatedly talked about the willingness to resume negotiations - whenever a threat hanging over it escalating. However, the meeting has not started yet: Iran, as every time it appears, wants to talk about global nuclear security, while his interlocutors on the "six" - Iran's nuclear program.

Ahmadinejad: Latin American tour

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad went to the allies in Latin America. He visited Ecuador, Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela.
Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa broke criticism of the IAEA, accusing the agency in that it uses the known anti-Iranian sources, making reports on its nuclear program.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez lashed out at U.S.: "We know that the Yankee empire has long keeps Iran at gunpoint. In fact, they pose a threat, while real, since that lies fabricate pretexts for intervention. "
Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega supported a colleague: "No one criticizes countries that already have nuclear weapons."
A meeting with the brothers Castro - Fidel and Raul, the Cuban leader, has also strengthened and increased self-esteem Ahmadinejad: "Iran and Cuba are on the same front fighting for the rights of peoples."
Thus, the southern neighbors visited by the U.S., the Iranian leader was able to enlist their broad mandate, which is especially valuable to him in a situation where the rest of the world turned against Iran and the prospects for the resumption of consultations with "six" highly questionable

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