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Saturday, 21 January 2012

Strait of Hormuz - "control shot in a head" to the economy of Europe

Turnout, the introduction of an oil embargo against Iran will damage the most Greece, Spain and Italy - countries with which the debt crisis began. In the total volume of oil imports in Italy accounts for 13% of Iranian oil (183 thousand barrels per day), Spain - 13% (137 thousand barrels per day), Greece - 14% (20 thousand barrels), with delivery in Iran Europe averaged 450 thousand barrels of oil per day.

It is a clear win-win situation for US and Britain, and Europe will play a role of a sucker, and possibly, finance its own demise.

The total distribution of oil export is in a table:

Country-importers of Iranian oil% Of oil exports of IranSupplies of oil barrels per day
The European Union18450
- Italy7183
- Spain6137
- France249
- GreeceA20
- GermanyA17
- United Kingdom011
- The NetherlandsA33
South Korea10244
South Africa498
Sri Lanka239

The military experts believe that Iran will not be able to keep the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz over two weeks since he has no comparable U.S. fleet of powerful, able to inflict serious damage with respect to U.S. carriers. On the other - in order to provoke a sharp rise in prices does not necessarily have a powerful fleet, rather insignificant threat of a missile strike, mine or attack speedboats to the price of transportation has increased against the background of the increased risks, but in the case of extremely negative scenario, insurers may refuse to insure the tankers and cargo, which completely overrides the maritime supply chain. High oil prices in conjunction with blocking the Strait of Hormuz may contribute to a renewed bout of global financial crisis, particularly given the difficult situation in Europe. According to experts, the increase in oil prices to $ 200 per barrel may lead to a fall of GDP from 5% to 10% in developed countries. It should be borne in mind that will increase the price of transporting goods and food prices will gradually "creep" up. In the highly unstable social environment (speeches anarchists in Greece, revolt of students in the UK, "occupy wall street" in the U.S.) such price increase is extremely dangerous. Therefore, it is not clear how accurately assess the risks leaders of the European Union, since the embargo in the first place hit economic growth of the European region.

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